Natural History of Unoperated Aortic Stenosis During a 50-Year Period of Cardiac Valve Replacement




Although a number of publications have described the natural history of patients with aortic stenosis (AS), the definition of “natural history” varies widely. Those describing a large number of patients with AS without operative therapy with necropsy findings are rare. Two hundred sixty patients >15 years of age with AS were studied at necropsy over a 50-year period by the same investigator. Of the 260 patients, the valve in 37 (14%) was congenitally unicuspid, in 123 (47%), congenitally bicuspid, and in 100 (38%), tricuspid. Aortic valve structure varied with age of death (in years; unicuspid 52 ± 17, bicuspid 63 ± 12, and tricuspid 70 ± 14 years); gender (men/women: unicuspid 95%/5%, bicuspid 78%/22%, and tricuspid 63%/37%), and frequency of calcium in the mitral valve annulus and epicardial coronary arteries. The patients with cardiac-related symptoms compared with those without were more likely to have a congenitally malformed valve (unicuspid 17% vs 12%; bicuspid 51% vs 29%; tricuspid 31% vs 60%; unadjusted p = 0.013), to die from cardiac disease (86% vs 54%; unadjusted p = 0.001), and to have larger hearts (mean cardiac weight 606 ± 138 g vs 523 ± 121 g; unadjusted p = 0.009) and a larger quantity of calcium in the aortic valve cusps. In conclusion, the length of survival in adults with AS is related to valve structure, gender, presence of cardiac-related symptoms, cardiac mass, and quantity of calcium in the aortic valve cusps.


During the past 80 years or so, a number of reports describing the natural history of patients with valvular aortic stenosis (AS) have been published. Before 1970, most focused on patients with AS studied at necropsy, and most centered on the cause of the AS. After predictably successful aortic valve replacement became a reality in the early 1960s, more reports appeared on the natural history of AS, but “natural history” meant something different in most studies. In some studies, it meant what happened when patients were followed for a specified period of time. In others, the term focused on the survival duration of symptomatic or asymptomatic patients until either an aortic valve operation was performed or death. A few included only subjects who had cardiac catheterization or echocardiography performed such that the severity of the AS was accurately known. No study in the past 50 years has focused on a large group of adults with AS studied at necropsy in whom an aortic valve operation during life had never been performed. Such is the purpose of this report.


Methods


From January 1956 until July 2012, 260 patients with AS unassociated with mitral stenosis were studied at necropsy either at the National Institutes of Health (Pathology Branch, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, Maryland) or at Baylor University Medical Center, Dallas, Texas; they are the subject of this study. All hearts were examined and classified by one of us (WCR). Many hearts had been submitted from other hospitals, particularly those in the Washington, DC, and surrounding areas. To be included in this study, at the time of necropsy, patients had to be >15 years of age, have a nonstenotic mitral valve, and had no operative procedure at any time on any cardiac valve. The aortic valve morphologically had to be clearly stenotic, that is, contain enough calcific deposits such that mobility of the aortic valve cusp or cusps was clearly diminished. The underlying structure of the stenotic aortic valve (i.e., unicuspid, bicuspid, or tricuspid) was determined in all cases by the same observer (WCR). The major epicardial coronary arteries were examined for obstructions, and the left ventricular walls were examined for foci of necrosis and fibrosis. Myocardial necrosis/fibrosis was confirmed by study of histologic sections of these areas. The medical records were sought and received from the hospitals submitting the heart specimens. Most stenotic aortic valves were photographed at either the Pathology Branch, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, or in the Cardiovascular Laboratory at Baylor University Medical Center.


Means, SDs, and percentages were calculated to describe the study cohort (n = 260). Differences in demographic, clinical, and morphologic details were tested with a Wilcoxon (for continuous factors) or a chi-square (for categorical factors) test. Unadjusted p values and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were also estimated. A Bonferroni correction was used to account for multiplicity. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to assess the adjusted-association between patients having symptoms (heart failure, angina pectoris, and/or syncope) and cause of death (e.g., cardiac or vascular). Covariates included gender, valve structure, heart weight (in grams), degree of coronary narrowing, foci of left ventricular necrosis and/or fibrosis, presence of calcium in the coronary arteries (in ≥1 coronary arteries). Likewise, 2 multivariable logistic regression models were used to assess the adjusted-association between age and (1) congenital valve disease and (2) presence of calcium in the coronary arteries. Covariates included patient having symptoms (heart failure, angina pectoris, and/or syncope), gender, valve structure (for calcium model only), heart weight (in grams), degree of coronary narrowing, foci of left ventricular necrosis and/or fibrosis, and presence of calcium in the coronary arteries (congenital valve model only). Restricted cubic splines were used for all continuous variables, and multiple imputation via predictive mean matching was used to account for missing data regarding the independent variables in this model. The adjusted p values, odds ratios, and 95% CIs were also estimated.


The study protocol was approved by the Institutional Review Board of Baylor University Medical Center.




Results


The findings in the present study are summarized in Tables 1 through 7 . Table 1 displays data according to aortic valve structure, Table 2 according to gender, Table 3 according to symptomatic status, Table 4 according to age group at death, Table 5 according to heart weight, and Table 6 according to degree of coronary narrowing. Table 7 provides findings in the 37 patients who had left-sided cardiac catheterization. Table 8 lists findings in the 29 patients whose stenotic aortic valves are illustrated in Figures 1 through 4 . Figure 5 illustrates the length of survival after onset of symptoms: angina pectoris, heart failure, syncope, and various combinations of these. Figure 6 shows the length of survival after onset of any cardiac symptom: angina pectoris, heart failure, syncope, or any combination of these. Figure 7 displays the relation of age to the probability of having a congenitally malformed aortic valve (unicuspid or bicuspid) and calcium in ≥1 coronary arteries.



Table 1

Morphologic and clinical variables, and modes of death in 260 patients with valvular aortic stenosis according to aortic valve structure






















































































































































































































































Variable Unicuspid Bicuspid Tricuspid Unadjusted p Value
n = 37 (14%) n = 123 (47%) n = 100 (38%)
Age in years: range (n = 254) 16–87 23–89 36–99 0.001
(Mean ± SD) (52 ± 17) (63 ± 12) (70 ± 14)
95% CI 47,56 60,65 67,72
Men/Women (n = 257) 35/2 93/27 63/37 0.005
95%/5% 78%/22% 63%/37%
Symptoms (n = 260) 0.013
Symptomatic 30 (81%) 89 (72%) 54 (54%)
Asymptomatic 6 (16%) 15 (12%) 31 (31%)
Unknown 1 (3%) 19 (16%) 15 (15%)
Mode of death (n = 260) 0.511
Cardiac
Sudden 6 (16%) 29 (24%) 26 (26%)
Non-sudden 28 (76%) 66 (54%) 47 (47%)
Vascular 1 (3%) 5 (4%) 2 (2%)
Noncardiac, nonvascular 2 (5%) 20 (16%) 25 (25%)
Unknown 0 3 (2%) 0
Heart weight (g): range (n = 231) 320–880 340–1,050 305–960 0.127
(Mean ± SD) (633 ± 136) (591 ± 148) (552 ± 132)
95% CI 585,681 564,618 523,581
Men 320–880 385–1,050 380–960
(637 ± 137) (620 ± 147) (603 ± 115)
Women 510 340–730 305–710
(496 ± 119) (458 ± 108)
Number of enlarged hearts § (n = 215 of 231) 31 of 33 (94%) 100 of 106 (94%) 84 of 92 (91%) 0.689
Narrowing of ≥1 major coronary arteries >75% (n = 96/234) 6 (17%) 43 (41%) 47 (51%) 0.018
Left ventricular (n = 260) 0.513
Necrosis only 1 (3%) 8 (7%) 6 (6%)
Fibrosis only 15 (41%) 44 (36%) 25 (25%)
Both 2 (5%) 7 (6%) 5 (5%)
Neither 19 (51%) 64 (52%) 64 (64%)
Calcium
Aortic valve (n = 251) 0.404
0 1 (3%) 1 (1%) 1 (1%)
1+ 5 (14%) 9 (8%) 7 (7%)
2+ 2 (5%) 15 (13%) 18 (18%)
3+ 10 (27%) 27 (23%) 30 (31%)
4+ 19 (51%) 64 (55%) 42 (43%)
Mitral annulus (n = 89 of 245) 7 (19%) 22 (20%) 60 (61%) 0.001
Coronary arteries (n = 121 of 232) 11 (31%) 43 (41%) 67 (73%) 0.001

Multiplicity accounted for.


Symptoms include heart failure, angina pectoris, and syncope, or any combination of the 3.


Unicuspid versus tricuspid p value = 0.051.


§ Hearts weighing >350 g in women and >400 g in men.



Table 2

Morphologic and clinical variables, and modes of death in 257 patients with valvular aortic stenosis according to gender





































































































































































































Variable Men Women Unadjusted p Value
n = 191 (74%) n = 66 (26%)
Age in years: range (n = 254) 16–99 32–90 0.001
(Mean ± SD) (61 ± 15) (70 ± 13)
95% CI 59,64 66,73
Aortic valve structure (n = 257) 0.005
Unicuspid 35 (18%) 2 (3%)
Bicuspid 93 (49%) 27 (41%)
Tricuspid 63 (33%) 37 (56%)
Symptoms (n = 257) 0.973
Symptomatic 129 (68%) 44 (67%)
Asymptomatic 38 (20%) 14 (21%)
Unknown 24 (12%) 8 (12%)
Mode of death (n = 257) 0.558
Cardiac
Sudden 45 (24%) 16 (24%)
Non-sudden 109 (57%) 32 (48%)
Vascular 6 (3%) 2 (3%)
Noncardiac, nonvascular 30 (16%) 16 (24%)
Unknown 1 (1%) 0
Heart weight (g): range (n = 231) 320–1,050 305–730 0.001
(Mean ± SD) (617 ± 135) (474 ± 112)
95% CI 598,636 440,509
Number of enlarged hearts (n = 215 of 231) 167 of 175 (95%) 48 of 56 (86%) 0.129
Coronary narrowing >75% § (n = 95 of 233) 74 (43%) 21 (35%) 0.292
Left ventricular (n = 257) 0.829
Necrosis only 11 (6%) 4 (6%)
Fibrosis only 69 (36%) 14 (21%)
Both 11 (6%) 2 (3%)
Neither 100 (52%) 46 (70%)
Calcium
Aortic valve (n = 249) 0.385
0 3 (2%) 0
1+ 17 (9%) 4 (6%)
2+ 27 (15%) 8 (12%)
3+ 51 (28%) 14 (22%)
4+ 86 (47%) 39 (60%)
Mitral annulus (n = 88 of 243) 51 (28%) 37 (59%) 0.001
Coronary arteries (n = 120 of 231) 85 (49%) 35 (61%) 0.100

Multiplicity accounted for.


Symptoms include heart failure, angina pectoris, and syncope, or any combination of the 3.


Hearts weighing >350 g in women and >400 g in men.


§ In cross-sectional area.



Table 3

Morphologic and clinical variables, and modes of death in 260 patients with valvular aortic stenosis according to the presence or absence of symptoms


















































































































































































































































Variable Symptomatic Asymptomatic Unknown Unadjusted p Value
n = 173 (67%) n = 52 (20%) n = 35 (13%)
Age in years: range (n = 254) 16–92 23–89 37–99 0.854
(Mean ± SD) (64 ± 14) (64 ± 17) (62 ± 15)
95% CI 62,66 60,68 57,68
Men/Women (n = 257) 129/44
75%/25%
38/14
73%/27%
24/8
75%/25%
0.973
Aortic valve structure (n = 260) 0.013
Unicuspid 30 (17%) 6 (12%) 1 (3%)
Bicuspid 89 (51%) 15 (29%) 19 (54%)
Tricuspid 54 (31%) 31 (60%) 15 (43%)
Mode of death (n = 260) 0.001
Cardiac
Sudden 38 (22%) 14 (27%) 9 (26%)
Non-sudden 111 (64%) 14 (27%) 16 (46%)
Vascular 4 (2%) 4 (8%) 0
Noncardiac, nonvascular 20 (12%) 20 (38%) 7 (20%)
Unknown 0 0 3 (9%)
Heart weight (g): range (n = 231) 320–1,050 305–920 310–1,000 0.009
(Mean ± SD) (606 ± 138) (523 ± 121) (563 ± 173)
95% CI 584,628 484,561 511,608
Men 320–1,050 340–920 420–1,000
(638 ± 131) (543 ± 115) (633 ± 147)
Women 370–730 305–650 310–500
(499 ± 106) (465 ± 123) (381 ± 72)
Number of enlarged hearts (n = 215 of 231) 148 of 152 (97%) 43 of 50 (86%) 24 of 29 (83%) 0.015
Narrowing of ≥1 major coronary arteries >75% (n = 96 of 234) 67 (41%) 15 (33%) 14 (56%) 0.161
Left ventricular (n = 260) 0.449
Necrosis only 9 (5%) 4 (8%) 2 (6%)
Fibrosis only 64 (37%) 9 (17%) 11 (31%)
Both 12 (7%) 0 2 (6%)
Neither 88 (51%) 39 (75%) 20 (57%)
Calcium
Aortic valve (n = 251) 0.038
0 2 (1%) 1 (2%) 0
1+ 10 (6%) 6 (12%) 5 (17%)
2+ 19 (11%) 13 (25%) 3 (10%)
3+ 40 (23%) 15 (29%) 12 (41%)
4+ 100 (58%) 16 (31%) 9 (31%)
Mitral annulus (n = 89 of 245) 59 (35%) 18 (36%) 12 (43%) 0.745
Coronary arteries (n = 121 of 232) 80 (49%) 24 (52%) 17 (71%) 0.147

Symptoms include heart failure, angina pectoris, and syncope, or any combination of the 3.


Multiplicity accounted for.


Hearts weighing >350 g in women and >400 g in men.



Table 4

Morphologic and clinical variables, and modes of death in 254 patients with valvular aortic stenosis according to age group


























































































































































































































































Variable Age Groups (years) Unadjusted p Value
16–35 36–65 >65
n = 11 (4%) n = 119 (47%) n = 124 (49%)
Men/Women (n = 254) 10/1
91%/9%
97/22
82%/18%
81/43
65%/35%
0.069
Aortic valve structure (n = 254) 0.001
Unicuspid 9 (82%) 22 (18%) 6 (5%)
Bicuspid 2 (18%) 64 (54%) 52 (42%)
Tricuspid 0 33 (28%) 66 (53%)
Symptoms (n = 254) 0.229
Symptomatic 6 (55%) 83 (70%) 84 (68%)
Asymptomatic 5 (45%) 17 (14%) 30 (24%)
Unknown 0 19 (16%) 10 (8%)
Mode of death (n = 254) 0.380
Cardiac
Sudden 3 (27%) 32 (27%) 26 (21%)
Non-sudden 6 (55%) 68 (57%) 64 (52%)
Vascular 1 (9%) 2 (2%) 5 (4%)
Noncardiac, nonvascular 1 (9%) 16 (13%) 29 (23%)
Unknown 0 1 (1%) 0
Heart weight (g): range (n = 230) 480–880 305–1,050 310–860 0.107
(Mean ± SD) (622 ± 116) (609 ± 157) (554 ± 126)
95% CI 538,706 582,636 527,580
Men 480–880 320–1,050 380–860
(633 ± 116) (638 ± 148) (593 ± 117)
Women 510 305–730 310–710
(483 ± 133) (468 ± 103)
Number of enlarged hearts § (214 of 230) 11 of 11 (100%) 99 of 108 (92%) 104 of 111 (94%) 0.547
Narrowing of ≥1 major coronary arteries >75% (n = 95/232) 0 41 (37%) 54 (48%) 0.069
Left ventricular (n = 254) 0.502
Necrosis only 2 (18%) 5 (4%) 7 (6%)
Fibrosis only 4 (36%) 38 (32%) 41 (33%)
Both 0 8 (7%) 5 (4%)
Neither 5 (45%) 68 (57%) 71 (57%)
Calcium
Aortic valve (n = 248) 0.101
0 1 (9%) 1 (1%) 1 (1%)
1+ 0 11 (9%) 10 (8%)
2+ 3 (27%) 18 (16%) 14 (12%)
3+ 5 (45%) 27 (23%) 33 (27%)
4+ 2 (18%) 59 (51%) 63 (52%)
Mitral annulus (n = 88 of 242) 0 36 (32%) 52 (44%) 0.059
Coronary arteries (n = 119 of 230) 1 (10%) 34 (33%) 84 (71%) 0.001

Multiplicity accounted for.


Symptoms include heart failure, angina pectoris, and syncope, or any combination of the 3.


Age groups 36 to 65 versus >65 p value = 0.042.


§ Hearts weighing >350 g in women and >400 g in men.



Table 5

Morphologic and clinical variables, and modes of death in 234 patients with valvular aortic stenosis according to heart weight






















































































































































































































Variable Heart Weight (g) Unadjusted p Value
≤400 401–600 >600
n = 26 (11%) n = 108 (46%) n = 100 (43%)
Age in years: range (n = 230) 47–90 23–99 16–89 0.021
(Mean ± SD) 67 ± 11 66 ± 15 59 ± 15
Men/Women (n = 231) 8/18
31%/69%
76/29
72%/28%
91/9
91%/9%
0.001
Aortic valve structure (n = 234) 0.202
Unicuspid 2 (8%) 11 (10%) 20 (20%)
Bicuspid 11 (42%) 53 (49%) 45 (45%)
Tricuspid 13 (50%) 44 (41%) 35 (35%)
Symptoms (n = 234) 0.031
Symptomatic 12 (46%) 62 (57%) 78 (78%)
Asymptomatic 8 (31%) 31 (29%) 11 (11%)
Unknown 6 (23%) 15 (14%) 11 (11%)
Mode of death (n = 234) 0.659
Cardiac
Sudden 9 (35%) 21 (19%) 23 (23%)
Non-sudden 8 (31%) 57 (53%) 62 (62%)
Vascular 2 (8%) 2 (2%) 3 (3%)
Noncardiac, nonvascular 7 (27%) 26 (24%) 11 (11%)
Unknown 0 2 (2%) 1 (1%)
Narrowing of ≥1 major coronary arteries >75% (n = 92/213) 11 (42%) 43 (40%) 38 (38%) 0.922
Left ventricular (n = 234) 0.729
Necrosis only 1 (4%) 10 (9%) 3 (3%)
Fibrosis only 9 (35%) 28 (26%) 42 (42%)
Both 0 6 (6%) 8 (8%)
Neither 16 (62%) 64 (59%) 47 (47%)
Calcium
Aortic valve (n = 229) 0.261
0 0 0 3 (3%)
1+ 4 (15%) 8 (8%) 6 (6%)
2+ 3 (12%) 20 (19%) 10 (10%)
3+ 7 (27%) 29 (28%) 27 (27%)
4+ 12 (46%) 47 (45%) 53 (54%)
Mitral annulus (n = 80/223) 11 (42%) 35 (32%) 34 (34%) 0.558
Coronary arteries (n = 110/211) 16 (62%) 55 (51%) 39 (39%) 0.578

Multiplicity accounted for.


Symptoms include heart failure, angina pectoris, and syncope, or any combination of the 3.



Table 6

Morphologic and clinical variables, and modes of death in 234 patients with valvular aortic stenosis according to coronary artery narrowing















































































































































































































Variable Coronary Narrowing (Cross-Sectional Area) Unadjusted p Value
>75% <75%
n = 96 (41%) n = 138 (59%)
Age in years: range (n = 232) 42–99 16–90 0.001
(Mean ± SD) 68 ± 12 61 ± 15
Men/Women (n = 233) 74/21
78%/22%
99/39
72%/28%
0.292
Aortic valve structure (n = 234) 0.018
Unicuspid 6 (6%) 30 (22%)
Bicuspid 43 (45%) 63 (46%)
Tricuspid 47 (48%) 45 (33%)
Symptoms (n = 234) 0.161
Symptomatic 67 (69%) 96 (70%)
Asymptomatic 15 (16%) 31 (22%)
Unknown 14 (15%) 11 (8%)
Mode of death (n = 234) 0.245
Cardiac
Sudden 26 (27%) 31 (22%)
Non-sudden 47 (49%) 80 (58%)
Vascular 5 (5%) 2 (1%)
Noncardiac, nonvascular 17 (18%) 25 (18%)
Unknown 1 (1%) 0
Heart weight (g): range (n = 212) 305–1,050 310–960 0.222
(Mean ± SD) 566 ± 137 590 ± 142
Men 320–1,050 380–960
593 ± 132 630 ± 130
Women 305–730 310–710
472 ± 118 473 ± 105
Number of enlarged hearts (n = 197 of 212) 85 of 91 (93%) 112 of 121 (93%) 0.813
Left ventricular (n = 234) 0.001
Necrosis only 7 (7%) 5 (4%)
Fibrosis only 49 (51%) 28 (20%)
Both 8 (8%) 4 (3%)
Neither 32 (33%) 101 (73%)
Calcium
Aortic valve (n = 234) 0.464
0 0 3 (2%)
1+ 10 (10%) 9 (7%)
2+ 13 (14%) 22 (16%)
3+ 22 (23%) 35 (25%)
4+ 51 (53%) 69 (50%)
Mitral annulus (n = 81/231) 39 (41%) 42 (30%) 0.112
Coronary arteries (n = 111/221) 64 (67%) 47 (34%) 0.001

Multiplicity accounted for.


Symptoms include heart failure, angina pectoris, and syncope, or any combination of the 3.


Hearts weighing >350 g in women and >400 g in men.



Table 7

Clinical and morphologic findings in 37 patients seen at necropsy having valvular aortic stenosis and a left heart catheterization within 2 years of death





















































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































Patient Age (Years) Gender Number of AV Cusps AV Calcium Interval from Cath to Death (Days) Left Ventricle Aorta PSG (mm Hg) Heart Weight (g)
Systolic (mm Hg) Diastolic (mm Hg) Systolic (mm Hg) Diastolic (mm Hg)
1 32 F 1 4+ 34 172 26 82 66 90 510
2 33 M 1 3+ 24 135 50 120 60 15 880
3 34 M 1 3+ 37 184 36 92 68 92 570
4 39 M 1 4+ 40 162 25 96 66 66 750
5 57 M 1 4+ 670 202 18 122 72 80 630
6 60 M 1 1+ 30 60
7 16 M 2 3+ 11 230 8 105 75 125 680
8 37 M 2 4+ 365 146 37 96 74 50 750
9 42 F 2 2+ 10 240 12 115 65 125 420
10 52 M 2 3+ 30 80 630
11 52 F 2 4+ 1 230 30 100 70 130 700
12 54 M 2 4+ 30 238 37 90 70 148 850
13 54 M 2 4+ 2 192 10 63 34 129 700
14 56 M 2 3+ 30 191 24 104 61 87
15 58 M 2 1+ 60 20
16 59 M 2 4+ 720 200 12 155 60 45 580
17 59 M 2 2+ 1 35 470
18 60 F 2 4+ 15 110 680
19 61 M 2 4+ 2 165 40 111 54 630
20 67 M 2 2+ 730 202 7 175 95 27
21 67 M 2 4+ 30 35 55 740
22 67 M 2 4+ 90 8 72 680
23 68 M 2 1+ 522 123 20 112 59 11 550
24 75 F 2 4+ 1 125
25 77 M 2 4+ 2 50 570
26 44 M 3 4+ 9 82 590
27 49 M 3 4+ 12 188 20 114 48 74 710
28 51 M 3 2+ 720 20 960
29 62 M 3 3+ 1 15 500
30 66 M 3 4+ 30 182 40 120 60 62 655
31 71 M 3 2+ 570 20 800
32 76 F 3 4+ 1 60
33 77 F 3 3+ 90 180 4 115 65 380
34 79 M 3 3+ 8 150 10 120 80 30 505
35 61 M 2 4+ 90 100 530
36 60 M 2 180 197 12 186 72 11 540
37 70 M 2 92 93

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Dec 5, 2016 | Posted by in CARDIOLOGY | Comments Off on Natural History of Unoperated Aortic Stenosis During a 50-Year Period of Cardiac Valve Replacement

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