Many of the risk factors for
CAD and
SCA are the same: hypertension, hyperlipidemia, type 2 diabetes mellitus, smoking, obesity, and a sedentary lifestyle. Most of these risk factors are treatable and/or preventable. General preventative measures tend to work on a population level but seem to have limited effects on an individual’s risk of
SCA. Congestive heart failure (
CHF), previous stroke or transient ischemic attack, atrial fibrillation, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, peripheral arterial disease, chronic kidney disease, obstructive sleep apnea, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (
COPD) are independently associated with increased risk of ventricular tachyarrhythmias and
SCD, particularly in patients over the age of 75 years.
8 The risk of
SCD in individuals with adult congenital heart disease is higher than in the general population and increases depending on the complexity of the heart defect. Eisenmenger syndrome has the highest incidence of
SCA, whereas transposition of the great arteries—either after atrial switch surgery or congenitally corrected—and Fontan physiology carry moderate risk.
9
Genetics
SCA in a first-degree relative is a well-known risk factor for
SCD. The presence of a genetic predisposition was suggested by studies that reported
SCA as the first presentation of cardiac disease in several generations of families independent of other
cardiovascular risk factors. The rate of
SCA or acute myocardial infarction (
AMI) was reported to be 1.5- to 2-fold higher in first-degree relatives of
SCD victims who had no previous history of heart disease as compared to those without a family history.
10,
11 Moreover, the risk of
SCA in individuals with no prior history of cardiac disease was approximately 10-fold higher when there was a family history of
SCD in more than one first-degree relative when compared to just one relative.
11 Mutation-specific genetic testing is recommended for screening of family members of survivors of unexplained
SCA to identify those with the subclinical disease who are at risk.
12
Between 3% and 45% of autopsies in previously healthy children, adolescents, and adults less than 35 years of age find no anatomical or histologic pathology, and therefore, fail to determine the cause of sudden death.
3,
13 Common cardiac channelopathies, such as long QT syndrome, catecholaminergic polymorphic VT, and Brugada syndrome are not associated with any morphologic abnormalities on postmortem examination and can be categorized as unexplained
SCD. Molecular autopsy may identify a pathologic mechanism and clarify the cause of death in in up to 27% of such cases.
5 A combination of histologic and molecular autopsy examination coupled with family screening may increase the likelihood of determining the cause of
SCD and help prevent it in surviving relatives.
Risk Prediction
The difference between population and individual risk is at the core of suboptimal prediction of the probability of
SCA. The highest risk group is comprised of adults with underlying
SHD and traditional cardiovascular risk factors, yet patients with
SHD constitute a small proportion of all sudden deaths. At the same time, the overwhelming majority of SCDs occur in the general population without traditional
CAD risk factors. This presents a challenging quandary of how to identify susceptible subjects at higher risk within a general population that is overall at low risk, particularly because in up to 50% of patients
SCA may be the initial manifestation of cardiac disease.
2 It is this group of patients who are concealed within the general population that contemporary state-of-the-art research is targeting to identify reliable predictors of
SCA.
Left ventricular ejection fraction (
LVEF) remains the key parameter currently used for risk stratification of
SCD. Implantation of internal cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) in patients with
SHD and
LVEF less than or equal to 35% provides a survival benefit.
14,
15 Accordingly, the presence of severe left ventricular dysfunction is the chief determinant of whether or not
ICD for primary prevention of
SCA is implanted. However,
LVEF has limited effectiveness in providing a reliable assessment of risk, leading to both underuse and overuse of
ICDs. A small proportion of subjects with ICDs receive appropriate anti-tachycardia pacing and defibrillation therapies. Only 1% to 5% of patients with an
ICD require device therapy each year, and up to 65% of patients implanted with ICDs will not receive an appropriate therapy over the 3-year period after device implantation.
16 Similarly, 15% to 18% of biventricular defibrillator recipients do not require appropriate
ICD therapies over a 2.4-year follow-up.
17 In addition, up to 70% of all SCDs occur in individuals with
LVEF greater than 35%, with half of these individuals having a normal
LVEF.
18 None of these subjects qualify for an
ICD based on current implantation criteria. Perhaps the risk of
SCD associated with
LVEF less than or equal to 35% should not be viewed as a binary parameter but rather as a continuous variable over a range of values.
A number of parameters outside of
LVEF have been suggested for risk stratification of
SCD, but none is superior to
LVEF as a predictor. Part of the challenge is that most of these parameters—both individually and in combination—predict overall cardiovascular mortality and are not specific for
SCD. Moreover, the low magnitude of the predictive value (1.5- to 3-fold) of proposed non-LVEF risk factors substantially limits their clinical utility.
19
The electrocardiogram (
ECG) is an inexpensive and widely available test that can help detect signs of
CAD and assess QRS morphology as well as QT interval. In a Spanish study of those over the age of 40 years, between 0.6% and 1.2% of individuals had
ECG features that portended an increased risk of
SCD, including long or short QT interval or spontaneous Brugada type 1 pattern. Moreover, when borderline ECGs were added (QT interval between normal and overtly abnormal as well as Brugada type 2 pattern), the prevalence increased to 8.3%.
20 The
ECG parameters associated with a higher risk of
SCD are summarized in
Table 62.1.
19
Various imaging modalities, such as echocardiography, cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (
CMR), positron emission tomography (
PET), and others, allow detailed characterization of the pathologic myocardial substrate to aid in the assessment of the individual risk of
SCA (see
Table 62.2). The primary
CMR finding associated with increased risk of
SCA is the presence and extent of a left ventricular scar.
21 Several echocardiographic parameters have also been linked to increased risk of
SCD, ventricular tachyarrhythmias, and
ICD therapies. These include the presence of
LVH and abnormal longitudinal strain.
21,
22 The
PET evidence of sympathetic denervation has
predictive value for
SCA in ischemic cardiomyopathy ischemic cardiomyopathy (
ICM), whereas perfusion defects and the presence of inflammation have been associated with ventricular tachyarrhythmias in cardiac sarcoidosis.
23
A number of biomarkers, including C-reactive protein, B-natriuretic peptide, and nonesterified fatty acids (n-3 fatty acids), as well as decreased serum calcium level, have been linked to an increased risk of
SCD in both men and women.
24,
25
Finally, as illustrated in
Table 62.1, impaired cardiac autonomic activity, including decreased heart rate variability and heart rate turbulence as well as diminished baroreflex sensitivity, has been shown to predict not only cardiovascular mortality but also increased risk of
SCA and ventricular tachyarrhythmias specifically, as reported in patients after myocardial infarction (MI) and in the setting of congenital heart disease.
26 Overall, using a combination of these clinical, genetic, autonomic, imaging, and
ECG parameters may provide increasingly incremental value in risk stratification for
SCA compared to
LVEF alone.