Burden of Non-Communicable, Chronic Diseases



The DALY metric was founded on the principles that: (1) everyone in the world has right to best life expectancy, and (2) differences in the rating of a death or disability should be due to age and sex and not to income, culture, location, social class.

It is also important to understand how Years Lived with Disability (YLD) is defined, by whom, and at what time in the disease course [4]. First, disability represents an “objective alteration of behavior or performance at the individual level”. Disability falls between impairment, which is defined by symptoms at an organ level, and handicap, which is defined by changed interactions with others at the social or environmental level due to disability. To illustrate, if an individual suffers from a stroke, s/he might have symptoms of unilateral arm and leg weakness (impairment), which limits her/his ability to walk independently (disability) and her/his ability to work in a job that requires walking (handicap). Second, researchers have typically surveyed medical professionals and public health experts to rank symptom states to quantitatively estimate YLD for myriad disease states. Other individuals, including but not limited to patients, families, caregivers, general public, insurance companies, and legal experts, might offer complementary perspectives on how YLDs should be estimated yet have not been incorporated in these estimates to date. Third, YLD estimates can be sensitive to the time course of the disease, particularly for non-communicable, chronic diseases, which can have long periods of minimal to no symptoms followed by acute shocks and gradual recovery to or near baseline. In the stroke example, the immediate post-stroke disability can be substantially different than 3, 6, or 12 months later and can be dependent upon access to rehabilitation and medical therapy. As such, YLD estimates may be susceptible to reporting bias by experts based on their previous clinical or health experiences.

Newer estimates of disease burden incorporate costs and financial risk through measures such as catastrophic health spending (based on the proportion of health spending relative to non-food expenditures) and distress financing (based on risky financial activities to pay for health, including borrowing money or selling assets) [5]. These complementary measures of financial protection, or lack thereof, are associated with individuals and families falling into poverty. Because health systems are evaluated in terms of quality, access, and financial protection [6], these measures of disease burden will likely gain more attention.

Using the International Classification of Diseases framework, the Global Burden of Disease project employed systematic searched published and unpublished data on causes of death through a variety of sources, including the World Health Organization mortality database, national vital registration systems, verbal autopsy-based sample registration systems, demographic surveillance systems, cancer registers, crime reports, mortuary data, among others [3]. In the case of so-called “garbage codes” that have been deemed implausible causes of death, available data were used to reclassify the causes of death [1]. The project team then incorporated these best available data into advanced, multi-level statistical models and imputation methods to estimate the causes of death among all countries from 1980 through 2010.

The Global Burden of Disease project is not without its critics who express concern about the complex analytic methods and frequent use of imputation to estimate data for countries that do not have accurate, updated mortality data. Some fear that the Global Burden of Disease, which is largely funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, a private non-governmental organization, may lead to reduced public investments in vital registration systems, a basic public health function that currently covers less than half of the world’s population [7]. Nevertheless, the Global Burden of Disease project represents the most comprehensive and accessible summary of contemporary global disease burden, including providing estimates for non-communicable, chronic diseases.



Global Burden of Non-Communicable, Chronic Diseases


Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease project, non-communicable, chronic diseases (NCDs) accounted for 34.5 million (65.5 % of total) deaths globally in 2010, compared with 13.2 million (24.9 % of total) deaths due to maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases, and 5.1 (9.6 % of total) deaths due to injuries during the same year (Table 1) [3]. While there was an increase of approximately 8 million deaths due to NCDs (30 % relative increase) since 1990, there was also a 32 % decrease in the age- and sex-specific death rate from NCDs over the same time period from 645.9 (95 % uncertainty interval: 629.9, 662.9) per 100,000 in 1990 to 520.4 (95 % UI: 499.5, 532.0) per 100,000 in 2010 (19 % decrease). Population aging contributed substantially (39 %) to the increases in NCD deaths since 1990, which primarily explains this difference between increasing numbers of deaths and declining rates [3].


Table 1
All-cause and non-communicable, chronic disease (NCD)-specific deaths and death rates in 1990 and 2010 estimated by the Global Burden of Disease Study [3]











































 
All causes

NCDs

1990 deaths

46,511,000

26,560,000

Deaths expected with 1990 population, 2010 population age structure, 1990 death rates

61,307,000

32,647,000

Deaths expected with 2010 population, 2010 population age structure, 1990 death rates

70,316,000

43,062,000

2010 deaths

52,770,000

34,540,000

Percentage change from 1990 due to population growth

31.8 %

22.9 %

Percentage change from 1990 due to population aging

19.4 %

39.2 %

Percentage change from 1990 due to change in death rates

−37.7 %

−32.1 %

Percentage change from 1990 to 2010

13.5 %

30.0 %

Similarly, the number of disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for all NCDs increased from 1075 million (95 % UI: 1000, 1160) DALYs in 1990 compared with 1343 million (95 % UI: 1240, 1457) in 2010, which represents a 25 % increase, while the rate of DALYs per 100,000 decreased by 3.8 % from 20,283 (95 % UI: 18,893, 21,874) per 100,000 in 1990 to 19,502 (95 % UI: 17,997, 21,143) per 100,000 in 2010.

The death and disability burdens of specific NCDs are outlined below with supporting data presented in Tables 2 and 3.


Table 2
Global Burden of Disease 2010 estimates of deaths and age-standardized death rates per 100,000 in 1990 and 2010 across non-communicable, chronic diseases















































































 
All ages deaths (thousands)

Age-standardized death rates per 100,000
 
1990

2010

% change

1990

2010

% change

All non-communicable, chronic diseases

26,560.3 (25,843.4, 27,249.3)

34,539.9 (33,164.7, 35,313.0)

30.0

645.9 (629.9, 662.9)

520.4 (499.5, 532.0)

−19.4

Cardiovascular and circulatory diseases

11,903.7 (11,329.4, 12,589.3)

15,616.1 (14,542.2, 16,315.1)

31.2

298.1 (283.9, 314.9)

234.8 (218.7, 245.2)

−21.2

Neoplasms

5779.1 (5415.9, 6201.9)

7977.9 (7337.1, 8403.8)

38.0

140.8 (131.9, 151.4)

121.4 (111.6, 127.9)

−13.8

Chronic lung diseases

3986.3 (3914.3, 4063.8)

3776.3 (3648.2, 3934.1)

−5.3

98.2 (96.4, 100.1)

57.0 (55.1, 59.4)

−41.9

Diabetes

1544.3 (1420.0, 1804.0)

2726.2 (2447.1, 2999.1)

76.5

36.1 (33.4, 41.6)

41.0 (36.8, 45.1)

13.8

Mental and behavioral disorders

138.1 (95.2, 188.0)

231.9 (176.3,329.1)

68.0

3.2 (2.2, 4.3)

3.5 (2.6,4.9)

9.3

Musculoskeletal disorders

69.5 (46.2, 89.6)

153.5 (110.7, 214.8)

121.0

1.7 (1.1,2.2)

2.3 (1.7,3.2)

37.8


Data abstracted from Lozano et al. [3]



Table 3
Global Burden of Disease 2010 estimates of disability adjusted life years and disability adjusted life years lost per 100,000 in 1990 and 2010 across non-communicable, chronic diseases


































 
All disability adjusted life years (thousands)

Disability adjusted life years per 100,000
 
1990

2010

% change

1990

2010

% change

All non-communicable, chronic diseases

1,075,297 (1,001,607, 1,159,673)

1,343,973 (1,239,973, 1,456,773)

25.0

20,283 (18,893, 21,874)

19,502 (17,997, 21,143)

−3.8

Cardiovascular and circulatory diseases

240,667 (227,084, 257,718)
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Jul 13, 2016 | Posted by in CARDIOLOGY | Comments Off on Burden of Non-Communicable, Chronic Diseases

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