An Approach to Improve the Negative Predictive Value and Clinical Utility of Transthoracic Echocardiography in Suspected Native Valve Infective Endocarditis




Background


In patients with suspected native valve infective endocarditis, current guidelines recommend initial transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) followed by transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) if clinical suspicion remains. The guidelines do not account for the quality of initial TTE or other findings that may alter the study’s diagnostic characteristics. This may lead to unnecessary TEE when initial TTE was sufficient to rule out vegetation.


Methods


The objective of this study was to determine if the use of a strict definition of negative results on TTE would improve the performance characteristics of TTE sufficiently to exclude vegetation. A retrospective analysis of patients at a single institution with suspected native valve endocarditis who underwent TTE followed by TEE within 7 days between January 1, 2007, and February 28, 2014, was performed. Negative results on TTE for vegetation were defined by either the standard approach (no evidence of vegetation seen on TTE) or by applying a set of strict negative criteria incorporating other findings on TTE. Using TEE as the gold standard for the presence of vegetation, the diagnostic performance of the two transthoracic approaches was compared.


Results


In total, 790 pairs of TTE and TEE were identified. With the standard approach, 661 of the transthoracic studies had negative findings (no vegetation seen), compared with 104 studies with negative findings using the strict negative approach (meeting all strict negative criteria). The sensitivity and negative predictive value of TTE for detecting vegetation were substantially improved using the strict negative approach (sensitivity, 98% [95% CI, 95%–99%] vs 43% [95% CI, 36%–51%]; negative predictive value, 97% [95% CI, 92%–99%] vs 87% [95% CI, 84%–89%]).


Conclusions


The ability of TTE to exclude vegetation in patients is excellent when strict criteria for negative results are applied. In patients at low to intermediate risk with strict negative results on TTE, follow-up TEE may be unnecessary.


The diagnosis of infective endocarditis (IE) is based on the modified Duke criteria, among which the presence of endocardial vegetation on echocardiography is a major criterion. Guidelines from multiple clinical societies, including the American College of Cardiology, the American Heart Association, and the Infectious Diseases Society of America, recommend transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) as the initial test when evaluating for vegetations in patients with a low or intermediate pretest probability of IE. Transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) is recommended to confirm absence of vegetations in patients with negative results on TTE if clinical suspicion of IE remains at least intermediate.


These recommendations are based on work from the late 1980’s and the 1990’s showing that the sensitivity of TTE for detecting valvular vegetations (44%–75%) is markedly lower than what has been reported for TEE (>95%). Most of the prior work reporting the diagnostic characteristics of TTE was performed with older generation echocardiographic technology. Furthermore, these recommendations are based strictly on the presence or absence of vegetation on TTE and do not account for image quality or other echocardiographic findings that may alter the study’s diagnostic performance characteristics.


The clinical utility of TTE would be markedly improved by increases in sensitivity and negative predictive value (NPV), which may allow negative results on TTE to exclude intracardiac vegetations. We hypothesized that using a set of strict criteria to identify studies with clearly normal results with adequate image quality would generate a subset of patients in whom negative results on TTE might obviate the need for follow-up TEE.


Methods


Study Objective


The objective of this study was to determine whether implementing a strict definition of negative findings on TTE would improve the performance characteristics of TTE sufficiently to exclude vegetation.


Patient Population Derivation


The patient population was derived through a retrospective analysis of the Duke Echocardiography Lab Database (DELD). The setup of the DELD has been previously described. Briefly, the DELD is a prospectively maintained digital archive of all echocardiograms obtained at Duke University Hospital and satellite clinics since 1995. This is linked to a corresponding searchable reporting database with clinical information derived from the electronic health record.


Patient Population


The DELD was searched for adult patients who underwent TTE followed by TEE within 7 days between January 1, 2007, and February 28, 2014. Patients who underwent the studies for any of the following indications were included: history of fever, bacteremia, and IE evaluation. The majority of transthoracic studies (>90%) were performed using the Philips iE33 platform (Philips Medical Systems, Andover, MA), which was fully integrated at our institution by January 1, 2007. The remaining studies were performed using the GE Vivid 7 or E9 platform (GE Healthcare, Little Chalfont, UK). Studies were performed using a 2.5-MHz phased-array probe.


The transthoracic echocardiographic imaging protocol for IE includes multiple zoomed-in views of each valve, two-dimensional sweeps of valves, the use of nontraditional windows to probe abnormal findings, and the use of fundamental frequencies to enhance spatial resolution beyond that of harmonic imaging alone. Patients with prior valve repair or replacement, complex congenital heart disease, prior heart transplantation, or left ventricular assist devices were excluded because of the higher incidence of IE and increased difficulty of imaging in these groups using TTE alone. TEE was performed using the Philips iE33 machine and an omniplane 3.5-MHz phased-array probe using fundamental frequencies.


Definition of Vegetation


A vegetation was defined as an independently mobile or oscillating echogenic target or mass in a heart chamber or valve on an echocardiographic study done for one of the indications listed under “Patient Population.” To identify studies showing vegetations, a string search was performed in the DELD on the “final interpretation” free-text field and valve comments fields for “vegetation,” “target,” “structure,” “material,” “strand,” “density,” and “mass.” Misspellings were accounted for by using only the first few letters of each word to search, followed by a manual review of the results. Studies with mobile targets seen on a valve, without more likely alternative etiologies (e.g., senile degeneration, benign neoplasm, annular calcification), were considered suggestive of vegetation. The results of follow-up TEE were considered the gold standard for presence of vegetation.


Strict Criteria for Negative Results on TTE


Two separate analyses were performed to evaluate the diagnostic characteristics of TTE in the evaluation of IE. In the first analysis, the standard definition of positive or negative results on TTE was used, based solely on the presence or absence of vegetation. For the second analysis, a strict definition of negative findings on TTE was developed, and studies not meeting these criteria were considered to have positive or indeterminate findings. The criteria for strict negative results on TTE are shown in Figure 1 .




Figure 1


Study cohort derivation and strict negative criteria. This figure outlines the derivation of the study cohort and shows the list of strict negative criteria. LVAD, Left ventricular assist device. Normal anatomy defined as tricuspid aortic, pulmonic, and tricuspid valves, mitral valve without mitral annular calcification, no mitral valve prolapse, no atrial septal defect or ventricular septal defect, repaired or unrepaired.


The strict negative criteria were designed to identify transthoracic echocardiograms that provide strong evidence against vegetation. Valvular regurgitation is characteristic of IE and has been associated with increased morbidity and mortality in patients diagnosed with IE. Thus, studies with mild or greater regurgitation of any valve were labeled indeterminate. Because serial echocardiographic data may not be available for all patients presenting with suspected IE, the stability of regurgitant lesions was not included in the criteria.


Findings that suggest increased risk for IE were also exclusions in the strict negative criteria. These include valvular stenosis or sclerosis, intracardiac foreign bodies, and anatomic abnormalities such as ventricular septal defects and structural valvular disease, which have all been shown to increase the risk for IE. Large or complex pericardial effusions were also excluded, because these have been associated with both increased rates of IE and worse outcomes when IE is present.


Finally, all studies were required to have adequate technical quality to detect all components of the strict negative criteria, with moderate or better ultrasound quality defined as adequate visualization of anatomic structures, chamber morphology, endocardial borders, and cardiac function from the standard acoustic windows without the need for contrast. Thus, studies without adequate image quality to detect the presence of valvular regurgitation, valvular sclerosis, or the presence of intracardiac hardware would be considered “poor” and not meeting the strict negative criteria. Ultrasound quality is graded at the time of clinical read for all echocardiographic studies performed in our laboratory. This grading, along with a search of all comments in the clinical report for “poor,” “limited,” or “inadequate” visualization of cardiac structures, was used to determine ultrasound quality for each echocardiogram.


Baseline Characteristics and Outcomes Data


Duke Enterprise Data Unified Content Explorer is a Web-based query tool used to extract data generated as a by-product of the care of patients in the Duke University Health System. The cohort of patients generated from the initial query of the DELD was uploaded to Duke Enterprise Data Unified Content Explorer, and clinical data, including prior diagnoses, blood culture results, and outcomes data, were extracted. The available outcomes data applicable to this study were mortality and surgical intervention.


Statistical Analysis


The sensitivity (true positive/condition positive), specificity (true negative/condition negative), NPV (true negative/test outcome negative), and positive predictive value (true positive/test outcome positive) were determined for both the standard and strict negative approaches using the standard 2 × 2 table approach. Condition positive for both approaches was defined by the presence of vegetation on TEE. In the standard approach, test positive was defined by presence of vegetation on TTE, whereas in the strict negative approach, test positive was defined by TTE failing to meet all of the strict negative criteria (positive or indeterminate). Therefore, in the strict negative criteria approach, true positives were transthoracic studies with positive or indeterminate results that subsequently had positive findings on TEE, whereas true negatives were transthoracic studies that met the strict negative criteria and subsequently had negative findings on TEE ( Figure 2 B). Next, negative and positive likelihood ratios (false-negative rate/true-negative rate and true-positive rate/false-positive rate, respectively) and the resulting relationships for each approach between pretest and posttest odds using the Bayes theorem were determined. A test indication curve was then generated to compare the effect of the negative likelihood ratio on posttest probability using the two transthoracic echocardiographic interpretation approaches. Differences in baseline characteristics between the strict negative subgroup and the positive or indeterminate subgroup were determined by using the Fisher exact test or unpaired Student’s t test. Statistical calculations were performed using GraphPad (GraphPad Software, San Diego, CA), and P values < .05 were considered to indicate statistical significance. Results are presented as mean ± SD or values with 95% CIs.




Figure 2


(A) Flow diagram showing the results of using the standard approach. (B) Flow diagram showing the results of using the strict negative approach.


Ethics


This study was performed using only information gathered as part of the routine clinical evaluation of patients at our institution and was carried out under approval of the Duke University School of Medicine Institutional Review Board.




Results


Between January 1, 2007, and February 28, 2014, 3,495 transthoracic echocardiographic studies were performed to evaluate for IE. Of these, 790 studies met the inclusion criteria and were followed by TEE within 7 days. Among these 790 paired transthoracic and transesophageal examinations, 104 of the transthoracic studies met the strict criteria for negative results (13.2% of all included transthoracic studies) ( Figure 1 ).


Baseline characteristics and blood culture data of the overall cohort, as well as the subgroup meeting the strict negative criteria, are shown in Table 1 . The strict negative group was significantly younger, with lower rates of congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease, chronic kidney disease, and hypertension. The proportion of patients with positive blood cultures was similar in each group, as was the distribution of infectious organisms.



Table 1

Baseline characteristics and blood culture data


















































































































































Variable Overall ( n = 790) Strict negative ( n = 104) Indeterminate/positive ( n = 686) P
Baseline characteristics
Age (y) 57.3 ± 15.5 45.5 ± 13.6 59.2 ± 14.9 <.001
Women 335 (42%) 38 (37%) 297 (43%) .20
Hypertension 599 (76%) 65 (63%) 534 (78%) .001
Diabetes mellitus 366 (46%) 41 (39%) 325 (47%) .14
Congestive heart failure 310 (39%) 9 (9%) 301 (44%) <.001
Coronary artery disease 293 (37%) 8 (8%) 285 (42%) <.001
Chronic kidney disease 372 (47%) 32 (31%) 340 (50%) <.001
Renal dialysis status 169 (21%) 18 (17%) 151 (22%) .31
COPD 51 (6%) 4 (4%) 47 (7%) .29
Cerebrovascular disease 183 (23%) 12 (12%) 171 (25%) .002
HIV positive 22 (3%) 7 (7%) 15 (2%) .02
History of illicit drug abuse 48 (6%) 12 (12%) 36 (5%) .02
Metastatic cancer 31 (4%) 4 (4%) 27 (4%) 1.00
Blood culture data
Positive blood cultures 595 (75%) 85 (82%) 510 (74%) .11
Species (% of positive cultures):
S. aureus 157 (26%) 24 (28%) 133 (26%) .69
Streptococcus spp. 28 (5%) 2 (2%) 26 (5%) .41
Coagulase-negative Staphylococcus 61 (10%) 7 (8%) 54 (11%) .70
Enterococcus 28 (5%) 1 (1%) 27 (5%) .16
Polymicrobial, including S. aureus 209 (35%) 38 (44%) 171 (34%) .05
Polymicrobial, excluding S. aureus 76 (13%) 5 (6%) 71 (14%) .05
Other 36 (6%) 8 (9%) 28 (5%) .21

COPD , Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; HIV , human immunodeficiency virus.

Data are expressed as mean ± SD or as number (percentage). Note that statistical comparisons are between studies with strict negative results and those with indeterminate or positive results.


Using the standard approach, 661 of 790 transthoracic echocardiograms were read as negative for vegetation (no evidence of vegetation), and 129 were read as positive for vegetation (vegetation seen). Of the 661 transthoracic studies with negative findings, 89 had vegetations on subsequent TEE ( Figure 2 A). The resulting sensitivity of TTE using the standard approach was (68/157) = 43% (95% CI, 36%–51%), with an NPV of (572/661) = 87% (95% CI, 84%–89%) ( Table 2 ).



Table 2

Diagnostic characteristics of the standard approach and the strict negative approach
































Variable Standard approach (95% CI) Strict negative approach (95% CI)
Sensitivity (%) 43.3 (35.8–51.1) 98.1 (94.5–99.3)
Specificity (%) 90.4 (87.8–92.4) 16.0 (13.3–19.0)
PPV (%) 52.7 (44.1–61.1) 22.4 (19.5–25.7)
NPV (%) 86.5 (83.7–88.9) 97.1 (91.9–99.0)
LR+ 4.50 (3.34–6.06) 1.17 (1.12–1.22)
LR− 0.627 (0.546–0.721) 0.120 (0.038–0.373)

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Apr 21, 2018 | Posted by in CARDIOLOGY | Comments Off on An Approach to Improve the Negative Predictive Value and Clinical Utility of Transthoracic Echocardiography in Suspected Native Valve Infective Endocarditis

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